Dr. Nick Piggott, NCSU Professor & Extension Specialist, Grain Marketing & Risk Management
As North Carolina growers consider planting wheat this fall, a fresh look at harvest bids and production costs can help assess whether growing wheat will be profitable. USDA estimates that U.S. wheat planted acreage for the 2026 crop was the smallest since records began in 1919. Drought during the winter of 2025–26 and spring of 2026 also reduced wheat production in the Great Plains, particularly Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. The smaller crop supports USDA’s projected national average farm price of $6.30 per bushel for the June 2026–May 2027 marketing year, up from $5.06 a year earlier. North Carolina wheat planted this fall will be harvested mainly in June 2027, so growers should look to 2027 harvest delivery bids when budgeting their crop. Weather during the late-October and November planting window will influence establishment. Growers should follow local forecasts and soil moisture conditions to identify opportunities to plant within their recommended window.
Whether wheat meets milling-quality requirements or is sold as feed wheat affects the price received and, in turn, profitability. Milling wheat pricing follows Chicago soft red winter wheat futures, with the July 2027 contract trading near $6.95 per bushel on October 15. Actual cash bids will reflect local basis and any quality premiums or discounts. Feed wheat competes with corn, so its price is tied more closely to corn futures. On October 15, July 2027 corn futures were trading near $5.07 per bushel. Adding recent September harvest basis bids of around $0.80 to $0.90 per bushel suggests feed wheat prices around $5.85 to $6.00 per bushel for the 2027 harvest. Growers should confirm current harvest bids with buyers. A higher milling wheat price does not necessarily mean a higher return per acre. Growers should weigh any price advantage against differences in variety yield, production and handling costs, and the risk that the crop will not meet milling specifications.
To see what these prices could mean for the bottom line, we used the no-till worksheet in NC State’s Wheat, Interactive – 2025 budget to compare low (60 bushels per acre), medium (75 bushels per acre) and high (95 bushels per acre) yields at assumed feed wheat and milling wheat cash prices of $6.00 and $6.95 per bushel, respectively. The milling scenario assumes growers receive a cash price of $6.95 per bushel, which future prices do not guarantee, as basis and quality-discount adjustments may also need to be factored in. At 60 bushels, returns are negative at both prices, with losses of about $93 per acre for feed wheat and $36 for milling wheat. At 75 bushels, feed wheat falls just short of breaking even, losing about $5 per acre, while milling wheat returns $66. At 95 bushels, returns rise to about $112 per acre for feed wheat and $202 for milling wheat. These figures represent returns to land, risk, and management after subtracting all budgeted production costs. Land costs are excluded. The examples hold production inputs and machinery costs constant, adjusting hauling and associated overhead for yield. They assume no additional expense to achieve milling quality. Before planting, update these 2025 estimates with your own costs and realistic yields, including any additional costs or yield differences associated with milling-quality wheat. A rebound in July 2027 wheat and corn futures toward their September highs of roughly $8.00 and $5.70 per bushel, respectively, could offer additional pricing opportunities. Widespread U.S. corn planting delays or unfavorable growing conditions in spring 2027 could support corn prices and strengthen feed wheat bids, depending on local basis. A wheat rally could similarly improve milling wheat bids. Growers should watch for opportunities to price a portion of expected production at profitable levels, while budgeting against prices they can secure today based on harvest delivery bids.
For additional questions, contact the Hertford County Extension Office at 252-358-7822.
